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Comment from Erna

If you consider the pliouarpty trend line of sitting LDP prime ministers lately, they all have the one and same thing in common: the only way is down. And that is actually an excellent reason to stick with Fukuda for the time being.It seems the public is hungry for anybody to pin their collective hope of LDP reform on, and is willing to give a fresh new face the benefit of the doubt. But as time passes the gray LDP-controlled reality of the new cabinet dissipates the fantasy of real change, and bring the support numbers down with it.So a cynical, crass analysis may well suggest that LDP should keep Fukuda around up until just before the next election, and elect a new leader too late for the public to get a glimpse of the grimy reality before election day.
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Comment from Bns

The analysis goes for the new leaedr as well: they'd want as little time in the pre-election spotlight as they can get away with. And while party elders may not have much clout with rebellious members, their own preferred candidate certainly does, and can tell them to keep a lid on it until the proper time.I wonder how an electoral system would function if you set a hard maximum number of seats any one party can receive (just like many systems have a minimum number already). You could set it at, say 51% or 55% - you can get a majority, but you do need to partner with others no matter what to use a supermajority. And there's few enough margin seats that you do need to take all your representatives into consideration.Of course, a large party could do a strategic split into two sister parties. But even if such a split starts out as pure fiction it would inevitably lead to real party differences, as you have different people in charge. Maybe worth setting up a simulation one day.
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Comment from Yasuo

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